Extrapolation
Extrapolation
Extrapolation (/ɛkˌstræpəˈleɪʃən/) is a statistical method used to estimate values outside a known range from values within that range. It is often used in medical research and clinical trials to predict future outcomes based on existing data.
Etymology
The term 'extrapolation' is derived from the Latin 'extra' meaning 'outside' and 'polare' which means 'to polish or refine'. This suggests the process of refining or estimating values outside a known range.
Definition
Extrapolation is a statistical technique used to predict or estimate a value outside a known range by assuming that the current trends (observed within the range) will continue even outside the range. This technique is often used in medical research, epidemiology, and clinical trials to predict future outcomes or trends based on existing data.
Method
Extrapolation involves two steps:
- Identifying a statistical relationship between the variables within the known range.
- Using this relationship to predict the values outside the range.
The accuracy of extrapolation depends on the assumption that the identified statistical relationship remains unchanged outside the known range. This assumption may not always hold true, leading to potential errors in the extrapolated values.
Related Terms
- Interpolation: A statistical method used to estimate values within a known range from values at the boundaries of that range.
- Regression analysis: A statistical method used to identify and quantify the relationship between variables.
- Forecasting: The process of making predictions about the future based on past and present data.
Applications in Medicine
In medicine, extrapolation is often used in clinical trials and epidemiological studies to predict the effect of a treatment or intervention in the general population based on the results observed in a sample population. It is also used to predict future trends in disease incidence and prevalence based on current data.
External links
- Medical encyclopedia article on Extrapolation
- Wikipedia's article - Extrapolation
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