Bayes theorem
Bayes Theorem
Bayes Theorem (pronounced: bāz ˈTHirēəm) is a fundamental principle in the field of statistics and probability theory. It is named after the Reverend Thomas Bayes, who first provided an equation that allows new evidence to update beliefs in his "An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances" (1763).
Etymology
The theorem is named after Thomas Bayes (1701–1761), who was a British mathematician and Presbyterian minister. The term "Bayes" is derived from his surname, and "theorem" is a term used in mathematics to denote a proven statement or formula.
Definition
Bayes Theorem is a mathematical formula used for calculating conditional probabilities. It describes the probability of an event based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. The theorem is often used in a wide range of disciplines, including medicine, to make predictive models.
Formula
The formula for Bayes Theorem is:
P(A|B) = [P(B|A) * P(A)] / P(B)
Where:
- P(A|B) is the conditional probability of event A given event B.
- P(B|A) is the conditional probability of event B given event A.
- P(A) and P(B) are the probabilities of observing A and B independently of each other.
Application in Medicine
In medicine, Bayes Theorem is used in the field of epidemiology to predict the likelihood of a disease given a certain symptom or test result. It is also used in medical diagnosis, genetic counseling, and clinical trials.
Related Terms
See Also
External links
- Medical encyclopedia article on Bayes theorem
- Wikipedia's article - Bayes theorem
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