Wells-Riley model

Wells-Riley Model

The Wells-Riley model is a mathematical model used to predict the probability of infection from airborne diseases. It was developed by William F. Wells and Richard Riley in the mid-20th century.

Pronunciation

• Wells: /wɛlz/
• Riley: /ˈraɪli/

Etymology

The model is named after its creators, William F. Wells and Richard Riley. Wells was a prominent American sanitary engineer and Riley was a renowned epidemiologist.

Definition

The Wells-Riley model is a mathematical equation that predicts the risk of infection from airborne pathogens in indoor environments. It is based on the concept of quanta of infection, which is the amount of airborne pathogen required to infect a person. The model takes into account factors such as the number of infected individuals, the rate of pathogen emission, the ventilation rate, and the susceptibility of the exposed individuals.

Related Terms

• Quanta of infection
• Airborne transmission
• Ventilation rate
• Pathogen emission rate
• Susceptibility

Formula

The Wells-Riley equation is given by:

P = 1 - exp(-Iqpt/Q)

where:

• P is the probability of infection
• I is the number of infectors
• q is the quanta generation rate
• p is the pulmonary ventilation rate
• t is the exposure time
• Q is the ventilation rate

Applications

The Wells-Riley model has been widely used in the field of public health and epidemiology to assess the risk of airborne transmission of diseases such as tuberculosis, measles, and influenza. More recently, it has been used to estimate the risk of transmission of COVID-19 in indoor settings.

Limitations

While the Wells-Riley model is a useful tool for estimating the risk of airborne infection, it has several limitations. It assumes that all individuals in a room are equally susceptible to infection, which may not be the case in reality. It also assumes that the concentration of airborne pathogens is uniform throughout the room, which may not be true in rooms with poor ventilation.

External links

• Medical encyclopedia article on Wells-Riley model
• Wikipedia's article - Wells-Riley model

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