Hindsight Bias
Hindsight Bias
Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along effect or creeping determinism, refers to the common tendency for people to perceive events that have already occurred as having been more predictable than they actually were before the events took place.
Pronunciation
Hindsight bias is pronounced as /ˈhaɪndˌsaɪt ˈbaɪəs/.
Etymology
The term "hindsight bias" comes from the two English words "hindsight" and "bias". "Hindsight" is a compound of "hind" (from Old English "hindan" meaning "from behind") and "sight" (from Old English "sihþ" meaning "thing seen"). "Bias" comes from the French "biais" meaning "slant, slope, oblique".
Definition
Hindsight bias is a psychological phenomenon in which people believe they knew the outcome of an event before it actually happened. This can lead to an oversimplification of cause and effect, and can affect decision-making processes, often causing errors.
Related Terms
- Cognitive Bias: A systematic error in thinking that affects the decisions and judgments that people make.
- Confirmation Bias: The tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses.
- Outcome Bias: The tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made.
See Also
References
- Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288–299. https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-1523.1.3.288
- Roese, N. J., & Vohs, K. D. (2012). Hindsight bias. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 7(5), 411–426. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691612454303
External links
- Medical encyclopedia article on Hindsight Bias
- Wikipedia's article - Hindsight Bias
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