Delphi method

Delphi Method

The Delphi Method (pronounced /ˈdɛlfaɪ/ method) is a structured communication technique, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts' forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g., number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results.

Etymology

The Delphi Method is named after the ancient Greek oracle at Delphi who was revered for her ability to predict the future. The method was developed by the RAND Corporation in the 1950s for the U.S. Air Force as a way to forecast technological advancements.

Related Terms

Forecasting: The process of making predictions of the future based on past and present data and most commonly by analysis of trends.
Consensus decision-making: A group decision-making process in which group members develop, and agree to support a decision in the best interest of the whole.
Expert: A person with extensive knowledge or ability based on research, experience, or occupation and in a particular area of study.
Questionnaire: A research instrument consisting of a series of questions for the purpose of gathering information from respondents.