Uncertainty: Difference between revisions
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{{Short description|Concept of uncertainty in various fields}} | |||
{{Use dmy dates|date=October 2023}} | |||
'''Uncertainty''' refers to situations involving imperfect or unknown information. It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown. Uncertainty arises in partially observable or stochastic environments, as well as due to ignorance, indeterminacy, or lack of knowledge. | |||
Uncertainty refers to | |||
== Types of Uncertainty == | ==Types of Uncertainty== | ||
Uncertainty can be classified into | Uncertainty can be classified into different types based on its nature and source: | ||
=== Aleatory Uncertainty === | ===Aleatory Uncertainty=== | ||
Aleatory uncertainty, | Aleatory uncertainty, also known as statistical uncertainty, is due to inherent randomness or variability in a system. It is often modeled using probability distributions. | ||
=== Epistemic Uncertainty === | ===Epistemic Uncertainty=== | ||
Epistemic uncertainty | Epistemic uncertainty arises from a lack of knowledge or information about a system. It can often be reduced by gathering more data or improving the model. | ||
== | ==Uncertainty in Science== | ||
In scientific research, uncertainty is a critical component of data analysis and interpretation. Scientists use statistical methods to quantify uncertainty and to make informed decisions based on incomplete information. | |||
== Uncertainty | ===Measurement Uncertainty=== | ||
Measurement uncertainty is the doubt that exists about the result of any measurement. It is expressed as a range within which the true value is asserted to lie with a certain level of confidence. | |||
=== Uncertainty in Physics === | ===Uncertainty in Physics=== | ||
In | In physics, the concept of uncertainty is famously encapsulated in [[Heisenberg's uncertainty principle]], which states that certain pairs of physical properties, like position and momentum, cannot both be known to arbitrary precision. | ||
==Uncertainty in Economics== | |||
In | In economics, uncertainty is a key factor in decision-making processes. It affects consumer behavior, investment decisions, and policy-making. | ||
=== Uncertainty | ===Risk vs. Uncertainty=== | ||
Economists distinguish between risk, which can be quantified and managed, and uncertainty, which is unquantifiable and unpredictable. | |||
== | ==Uncertainty in Decision Making== | ||
* [[Risk | Decision-making under uncertainty involves choosing actions based on incomplete information. Various models and frameworks, such as decision trees and Bayesian inference, are used to handle uncertainty in decision-making processes. | ||
==Related pages== | |||
* [[Risk management]] | |||
* [[Probability theory]] | * [[Probability theory]] | ||
* [[ | * [[Heisenberg's uncertainty principle]] | ||
[[File:Blank_Fork.png|thumb|right|Uncertainty can lead to multiple possible outcomes.]] | |||
[[File:Uncertainty.svg|thumb|right|Graphical representation of uncertainty.]] | |||
[[Category:Uncertainty]] | [[Category:Uncertainty]] | ||
[[Category:Philosophy of science]] | |||
[[Category:Probability and statistics]] | |||
Revision as of 16:16, 9 February 2025
Concept of uncertainty in various fields
Uncertainty refers to situations involving imperfect or unknown information. It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown. Uncertainty arises in partially observable or stochastic environments, as well as due to ignorance, indeterminacy, or lack of knowledge.
Types of Uncertainty
Uncertainty can be classified into different types based on its nature and source:
Aleatory Uncertainty
Aleatory uncertainty, also known as statistical uncertainty, is due to inherent randomness or variability in a system. It is often modeled using probability distributions.
Epistemic Uncertainty
Epistemic uncertainty arises from a lack of knowledge or information about a system. It can often be reduced by gathering more data or improving the model.
Uncertainty in Science
In scientific research, uncertainty is a critical component of data analysis and interpretation. Scientists use statistical methods to quantify uncertainty and to make informed decisions based on incomplete information.
Measurement Uncertainty
Measurement uncertainty is the doubt that exists about the result of any measurement. It is expressed as a range within which the true value is asserted to lie with a certain level of confidence.
Uncertainty in Physics
In physics, the concept of uncertainty is famously encapsulated in Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, which states that certain pairs of physical properties, like position and momentum, cannot both be known to arbitrary precision.
Uncertainty in Economics
In economics, uncertainty is a key factor in decision-making processes. It affects consumer behavior, investment decisions, and policy-making.
Risk vs. Uncertainty
Economists distinguish between risk, which can be quantified and managed, and uncertainty, which is unquantifiable and unpredictable.
Uncertainty in Decision Making
Decision-making under uncertainty involves choosing actions based on incomplete information. Various models and frameworks, such as decision trees and Bayesian inference, are used to handle uncertainty in decision-making processes.
