Delphi
Delphi (Medicine)
Delphi (pronounced: /ˈdɛlfaɪ/), in the context of medicine, refers to a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts' forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g., number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results.
Etymology
The term Delphi derives from the ancient Greek town of Delphi, a place considered by the ancients to be the center of the world and a site of prophecy, where the most important oracle in the classical Greek world, known as the Oracle of Delphi, was located.
Related Terms
- Consensus: A general agreement about something, an idea or opinion that is shared by all the people in a group.
- Forecasting: The process of making predictions of the future based on past and present data and most commonly by analysis of trends.
- Questionnaire: A research instrument consisting of a series of questions for the purpose of gathering information from respondents.
- Expert Panel: A group of individuals who have been chosen because of their knowledge and experience in a particular area.
- Facilitator: Someone who helps a group of people understand their common objectives and assists them to plan to achieve them without taking a particular position in the discussion.
External links
- Medical encyclopedia article on Delphi
- Wikipedia's article - Delphi
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