Base rate fallacy
Base rate fallacy (pronunciation: /beɪs reɪt ˈfæləsi/), also known as base rate bias or base rate neglect, is a cognitive bias that occurs when a person misjudges the likelihood of a situation by ignoring the base rates of occurrence and focusing solely on specific information.
Etymology
The term "base rate" comes from the field of probability theory, where it refers to the underlying probability of an event. The term "fallacy" is derived from the Latin word "fallacia", which means "deception" or "error". The term "base rate fallacy" was first used in the field of psychology to describe a common error in human judgment.
Definition
The base rate fallacy is a cognitive bias that occurs when a person judges the probability of an event based on specific information, without considering the base rate or underlying probability of that event. This can lead to inaccurate judgments and decisions. For example, if a person hears about a car accident in their city, they might overestimate the risk of car accidents, without considering the base rate of car accidents in their city.
Related Terms
- Cognitive bias: A systematic error in thinking that affects the decisions and judgments that people make.
- Probability theory: A branch of mathematics that deals with the analysis of random phenomena.
- Psychology: The scientific study of the human mind and its functions, especially those affecting behavior in a given context.
See Also
External links
- Medical encyclopedia article on Base rate fallacy
- Wikipedia's article - Base rate fallacy
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