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<p><b>New page</b></p><div>[[File:All_forcing_agents_CO2_equivalent_concentration.svg|All forcing agents CO2 equivalent concentration|thumb]] '''Representative Concentration Pathways''' ('''RCPs''') are [[climate change]] scenarios that were developed for the [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]] ([[IPCC]]) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. The RCPs describe four different 21st century pathways of [[greenhouse gas]] emissions and atmospheric concentrations, air pollutant emissions, and land use changes. Each pathway represents a different scenario of greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectories adopted based on their radiative forcing values by the year 2100, ranging from 2.6 to 8.5 watts per square meter (W/m^2).<br />
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==Overview==<br />
The concept of RCPs is a central component in the climate change literature, providing a framework for researchers to analyze the impacts of climate change and to develop strategies for [[mitigation]] and [[adaptation]]. The RCPs are used in [[climate models]] and projections to assess the range of possible future climates based on current and potential future greenhouse gas emission trajectories.<br />
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==The Four RCPs==<br />
The four RCPs, named after their radiative forcing target for the year 2100, are:<br />
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* '''RCP2.6''': Aims for a very stringent [[mitigation]] scenario, leading to a peak in greenhouse gas concentrations around 2020, with a substantial decline thereafter.<br />
* '''RCP4.5''' and '''RCP6.0''': Represent stabilization scenarios after 2100, without exceeding the specified radiative forcing levels.<br />
* '''RCP8.5''': Represents a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, in which emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century.<br />
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==Development and Use==<br />
The RCPs were developed through an integrated assessment modeling approach, combining knowledge from the fields of [[economics]], energy, agriculture, and [[climate science]]. They are not predictions but are instead intended to cover a range of possible futures to inform policy and decision-making.<br />
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==Implications for Climate Change Research==<br />
The RCPs have significantly contributed to the understanding of potential future climates and have been extensively used in [[climate change impact]] assessments, including the IPCC's Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports. They provide a basis for exploring how different levels of mitigation could impact global warming, sea-level rise, and other climate change effects.<br />
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==Criticism and Future Directions==<br />
While the RCPs have been instrumental in climate change research, they have also faced criticism for their assumptions and for the lack of a scenario with negative emissions by the end of the century. Future pathways, known as [[Shared Socioeconomic Pathways]] (SSPs), have been developed to address these and other limitations by combining RCPs with socioeconomic narratives.<br />
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==See Also==<br />
* [[Climate change mitigation]]<br />
* [[Climate model]]<br />
* [[Global warming]]<br />
* [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]]<br />
* [[Shared Socioeconomic Pathways]]<br />
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[[Category:Climate change]]<br />
[[Category:Environmental science]]<br />
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